Should McCain be hoping this rain keeps up?

I would normally have thought it absurd to attribute voter turnout and the outcome of a presidential election to Mother Nature. However, during my 90-minute drive to Hartford this morning, I realized why USA Today thought it important enough to run a story on the effects of rain on the popular vote. The reason? People can't drive!

As soon as it drizzles in this state, trees collapse, power lines go down, electricity is out and all drivers suddenly become 90 year-old women. Connecticut is not alone in the phenomenon, but it surely must be one of the worst. However, I don't think McCain is getting his hopes up for our seven little blue electoral votes swinging to the red because of a monsoon. According to USA Today though, it's a real possibility in other parts of the country.

From the article: "A study conducted by political scientists last year verified the old American political adage that Republicans should pray for rain on Election Day. The researchers found that for every one inch increase in rain above its Election Day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5% of the vote."

The study mainly focused on precipitation, as it was determined that cold or hot weather alone was not enough to significantly deter people from voting. But rain and snow will do the trick. The article states that poor weather greatly reduces the average number of voters for specific towns (compared with previous voting years). But why is it that "… poor weather conditions are positively related to Republican Party vote share in presidential elections?" Why does rain work for Republicans? Well, they just don't say.

The chart to the left shows how many voters were supposedly influenced by weather in past elections. While the 1992 election by far has the highest number, it was not nearly as close as the 2000 election which comes in second. So is it possible that rain really made Gore lose?

And will it turn this election around for the Republican campaign? Check out Pennslyvania, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire Virginia and New Mexico below. According to this map... I think not.