Should McCain be hoping this rain keeps up?

I would normally have thought it absurd to attribute voter turnout and the outcome of a presidential election to Mother Nature. However, during my 90-minute drive to Hartford this morning, I realized why USA Today thought it important enough to run a story on the effects of rain on the popular vote. The reason? People can't drive!

As soon as it drizzles in this state, trees collapse, power lines go down, electricity is out and all drivers suddenly become 90 year-old women. Connecticut is not alone in the phenomenon, but it surely must be one of the worst. However, I don't think McCain is getting his hopes up for our seven little blue electoral votes swinging to the red because of a monsoon. According to USA Today though, it's a real possibility in other parts of the country.

From the article: "A study conducted by political scientists last year verified the old American political adage that Republicans should pray for rain on Election Day. The researchers found that for every one inch increase in rain above its Election Day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5% of the vote."

The study mainly focused on precipitation, as it was determined that cold or hot weather alone was not enough to significantly deter people from voting. But rain and snow will do the trick. The article states that poor weather greatly reduces the average number of voters for specific towns (compared with previous voting years). But why is it that "… poor weather conditions are positively related to Republican Party vote share in presidential elections?" Why does rain work for Republicans? Well, they just don't say.

The chart to the left shows how many voters were supposedly influenced by weather in past elections. While the 1992 election by far has the highest number, it was not nearly as close as the 2000 election which comes in second. So is it possible that rain really made Gore lose?

And will it turn this election around for the Republican campaign? Check out Pennslyvania, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire Virginia and New Mexico below. According to this map... I think not.

Electoral College Progression

This is an interesting graph I found on electoral-vote.com illustrating which of the presidential candidates won the favor of the electoral college during specific critical times of the campaign. As you can see, according to this account, there are only two instances in which Obama fell below McCain--the first was during the Democratic primaries before he won the party nomination and the second came surprisingly during the Wall Street meltdown just before the first debate. While his favor rose substantially after the debate, he actually experienced an increase before that night, suggesting that perhaps McCain's actions in suspending his campaign were really as detrimental as we all supposed them to be (considering that between the Wall Street meltdown and the debate, the only substantial political happening was McCain's request to postpone the event and head to Washington, rejected by Obama).

The chart also shows the reaction to some of the ads we talked about tonight, specifically the Paris Hilton ad, as well as the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, during which time Obama seemed to be declining as McCain began to rise (assumedly as a result of Sarah Palin).

The October results are particularly interesting and seem to exaggerate the divide between the two candidates, but are supposedly based on factual estimates. Analyzing this chart alone would appear to relieve this presidential election of any "surprise" outcome.

Odd tactics...

While browsing the Living Room Candidate for campaign 2008 ads I haven't seen yet, I found a particularly interesting take on the media's "love affair" with Obama by the McCain camp. Though it was funded by republicans and aimed at discrediting Barack Obama, the majority of the ad displays media praises of him. While Tucker Carlson's comments are peculiar and bit scary, the rest actually seem complimentary, making me wonder about the effectiveness of running an ad like this. If an undecided voter were to see an ad sponsored by McCain that claimed the entire media was in favor of Barack, what would convince them that these educated professionals are wrong?

This ad demonstrates a tactic in which McCain or other republican representatives have very little roles as the entire three minutes is occupied by media clips. Is this as affective as later ads with voice overs telling people what to think? Which is more respectable, and is honorable as important as affective?

Toddler Campaign Ads

I found this on a sports fan forum, oddly enough (I love Google searches), but the original is from an article on cracked.com. It was titled, "What Campaign Ads Would Look Like if the Voting Age was 6," highlighting the current silliness of presidential ads lately and stating that they couldn't be any more juvenile than if they were created for kids. Here are the some ads, first for McCain, then Obama.

And here are some if 13 year-old girls were the voter constituency.

Two of my favorites, one for McCain and one, ever so distastfully for Obama....

Finally, the top three (it was a contest for viewers to make ads reflecting the absurdity of the campaigns).

#3

#2

#1

America is like Jesus...

I don't know if this was meant to be humorous, but I found Joe the Plumber's rant kind of funny and random. He reminds me of one of my dad's friends. I realize he's middle class and all, but why do we seriously care what this guy thinks?

Obama Girl vs. McCain Girl

Nothing gets youth interested in politics like half-naked girls dancing and singing, except, of course, half-naked girls fighting while dancing and singing. So naturally, the sexy ads appeared just as quickly on YouTube as the comedy videos. A fairly popular video site called BarelyPolitical.com houses all of the "Obama Girl" and "McCain Girl" videos that have been floating around the Internet since as early as spring 2007. I thought they might be a good segue between sexism week and humor week. The two below are sort of the introductory episodes of these two political "representatives" and there are dozens more to follow.

Here we see a sequel of both girls as sort of superheroes--Super Obama Girl (during the primaries so she's mainly opposing Clinton) and the Incredible McCain Girl (spoof on the Hulk.. "don't make her angry, you won't like her when she's angry" as the description says).

SNL Star Sarah Palin

I'm sure other people have posted about this already, and I apologize for not checking first before posting it again, but below is a video from SNL's website of one of Palin's two cameos on last night's episode. The video shows Amy performing a rap that was "supposedly" written for Sarah Palin to perform, but she forgoes her role in the beginning of the skit claiming that the stunt would be "damaging" to the campaign. Duhh... Media, however, are entertaining the thought that perhaps the skit was written for Sarah rather than Amy.



Regardless, according to statistics found overnight by Nielsen Media Research, Palin's appearance attracted the largest audience for SNL in 14 years, with nearly 17 million people tuning in for the first half hour of the show. The Associated Press claimed the show hadn't seen that kind of viewership since Nancy Kerrigan guest-hosted in 1994 following her assault. However, of the 14 million who continued watching until the end (a huge number for any midnight show), I wonder how impressed they were? Some comments I found stated that they thought her SNL performance was similar to her debate skills--uneventful and slightly boring--while others, including McCain, noted how "wonderful" she was. However, the former group attributes this sentiment to the same reasoning applied to her debates and interviews--we all think she's fantastic if she simply doesn't screw up.

The picture to the right was the only instance in the entire show of Fey and Palin together, and it lasted maybe 2.5 seconds as Fey wisked herself offstage and Palin entered to replace her. The two barely made eye contact, and even in the SNL backstage video, there are no shots of Palin and Fey in the same room. Was this to avoid direct comparison of the imitation to the real thing? And what would that accomplish? Or maybe Tina Fey simply is not fond of Governor Palin, as evidenced by her appearance on Letterman earlier in the week. Whatever the reason, it seems more people tuned in to watch these two women than ever expected, more than half the number of presidential debate viewers! And even though Palin and Fey didn't face off, Palin supporters should be proud of their candidate for her role with proclaimed Democrat and Obama-supporter Alec Baldwin, as their banter, in my opinion, was quite well done. Still, as Jon Stewart says of Palin, expectations are exceeded if she "remained upright and didn't drool."

Did this PR stunt prove anything to America, or was it simply the Republican party's acknowledgement that she really doesn't have much more to lose, so why not play around a little? What does it all mean? I'm sure we'll find out later this week in the polls. But more importantly, what should it all mean, and what impact should something like this really have on a presidential election? Hopefully...less than I'm expecting it will.

Another note on racism...

I know racism and sexism were our topics for last week, but I thought this was interesting in light of all the "niceties" that have been going around lately. Videos and stories like the Al Smith dinner speeches available on Kasey's blog seem to have masked, even a little, the slander and mud-slinging of the 2008 debates and campaigning. But the video below proves that, even if McCain and Palin are playing nice, the campaign teams are still hard at it.

The LA Times ran an article today about a photo that recently appeared in a Republican newsletter in California illustrating a fake $10 food stamp with Barack Obama's face on a donkey surrounded by fried chicken, kool-aid, and watermelon. Republicans who viewed the newsletter were horrified, but the editor claimed she had no idea the image had racial implications.

Palin imitating Fey?

So apparently Sarah Palin has taken a cue from past politicians and will be facing her SNL doppelgänger in tomorrow night's show. Unfortunately, this will most likely raise her ratings and popularity, demonstrating she is a "big" enough person to be criticized and imitated. According to newsday.com, Palin told reporters that she is not only looking forward to gueststarring alongside her popular foil, but hopes she has a chance to imitate her as well...that is, Palin imitating Fey imitating Palin, in case you lost track. She said, "I love her, she's a hoot, and she's so talented. It would be fun to meet her, imitate her and keep on giving her new material." I somehow don't think she'll have any problem doing that last one.

Picture Perfect

Not to exhaust the issue of Sarah Palin's supposedly sexist portrait in the media, I just came across a Fox 61 News page with a variety of photos, including the recently risque leg clip, that helps to illustrate the different ways the media likes to "portray Palin." Here are a few of my favorites.



Now what does it look like they're looking at up there? This next one is a shot from the Vice Presidential debate. I have to say it is just inappropriate. I'm sure Biden was wearing equally nice designer shoes...why don't his feet get any spotlight? Sexism.


And, one of the most controversial photos lately (a few days old, so I apologize) --Palin's Newseek cover. Complete with wrinkles, crow's feet, clumpy mascara, age spots and sun freckles--untouched and unflattering. But she's real, right? Isn't that her whole platform?

Palin's Internet Profile

In one of my summer classes a few months ago, I conducted a study about the contemporary conception of the "American Dream," incited and proved largely by a very different kind of research - Google search results. The project came to mind when I searched for the term "American Dream" intending to find information about a hip-hop performer I like by that name, and came across dozens and dozens of websites about money, real estate, cars, and, yep, even Internet dating. While I did find information on the rapper I was looking for, very few sites illustrated what I believed was the "classic" American dream. With this in mind, I applied the same logic to the "idea" of Sarah Palin.

The media circulates all sorts of information about sexism, feminism, political platforms and women's rights pertaining to the 2008 election. First with Hilary, then Michelle and now Sarah. Though the case may be different each time, I wonder what matters most when it comes to women in politics? Google search results will tell us...

On the very first page of results, after Wikipedia and the McCain-Palin official websites, the six links above were listed. "Hot photos" were the topic of three, while the others focused on her more serious traits, like parenting, personability and popularity. Where's that other P-word that seems so important.. ya know, politics? I guess it just isn't. Whatever it proves, these results definitely add a new dimension to the discussion of media sexism. Is it them or us? It seems the need for stories uncovering the "more than what meets the eye" part of Palin would be unnecessary if we weren't so blinded by our eyes.

Just how important ARE debates?

In last night's class, we touched on a few of these and I thought it would be interesting to post this in case anyone wanted some more examples. The most famous "deciding" debates are among these six instances: Kennedy vs. Nixon; Bush vs. Dukakis; Bush Jr. vs. Gore, etc. Click the picture below to see how the media thinks debates affect the outcome of an election.

In case you didn't know...

Just in case you weren't abreast in the political platforms of our candidates, here is a fun little game to waste time during your work day. Happy Tuesday!

Triple Dog Standard

Everyone knows the "double standard" of women in politics. We criticize them when they're too masculine and call them weak when they're too feminine. And men, oh men can just be masculine, warring egomaniacs...that's what we want in a president, right?

Well in this election, I think we've invented a new standard--the Triple Dog Standard. An opinion article in the Boston Herald called Sarah Palin an "affirmative action embarrassment." But what's more interesting than this article are the 234 responses that follow. One man says that other women in politics are just "men wannabes," whereas Palin is "proud to act and be the woman that she is." Does that mean that Palin is the definitive "real woman?" Another woman claims that Palin knows how to get ahead in politics and used it to her advantage, the same way many women use their looks, flirtations and smile to give them an edge over the competition. Now, I must admit, I have done this as well, and I have defended my right to do so. As an intelligent and capable woman, I recognize the shortfalls of our society and realize that sometimes, my brains just don't count as much as I'd like them to. But is it right for a Vice Presidential candidate to follow suit? I say no, but then, I am guilty of the triple dog standard.



Other women support her "true American success story" relating her to the average woman. However, one user named Elanor has a different take on the average woman theme: "Sarah Palin flirted with voters to win them over. It was embarrassing to watch. If she did that on a regular job interview and was hired because of it, she'd be considered the office slut. Men may drool over her, but any woman with self respect would disdain her the cutesy, manipulative, cheerleader chirpiness that she uses to try to get people to come around to supporting her."

It's another world down South...

According to the LA Times, there has been major talk of racial prejudice in the instrumental swing state of Virginia. With strong labor unions among the coal mining towns of southern Virginia and a relatively large support group for the Democratic party, there's only one problem keeping these proclaimed liberals from voting Obama-Biden in November--they voted for Hilary.

Resident supporters and campaigners for Obama claim that Virginians have a difficult time overcoming the color of Obama's skin, even those who claim to be anti-racism and tolerant of diversity. One constituent stated that Obama "just doesn't seem like he's from America," and remarked that his middle name is Hussein, followed by, "and we know what that means." Whether these voters are simply uninformed or truly racist is uncertain, but the Times cites an article that appeared in a local newspaper by the treasurer of the Buchanan County Republican Party which suggests the latter.

The article is a "spoof" on Obama's platform, as the Times describes it, but to most readers, it is merely racist bigotry. Among other things, Bobby Lee May (the author) claims that every incentive Obama supports involves an increase in taxes, and on a more ridiculous note, that he would hire Ludacris to "paint the White House black" and charge taxpayers for spraypaint for graffiti. The article also suggests that Obama would update currency to reflect diversity with faces of Oprah, 50 Cent, and Paris Hilton, and replace the 50 stars on our flag with a crescent and star logo (representative of Muslims). He even wrote that Obama would replace the "Don't ask, don't tell" policy in our military with a "queer in every foxhole, and a camouflage sex toy in every backpack" requirement, followed by a blunt accusation of Obama as a communist.

I guess with the way race has been handled in major mainstream media, I forgot that people like this still exist. In all fairness, the media has taken quite a position on poking fun at the Republican candidates as well, but are they criticizing Sarah Palin as a woman, or as a politician? Maybe it's just my generation, but I thought America was mature enough to vote on politics--guess we have some growing up to do yet.

Don't vote...

Another example of celebrity influence, but not pointed toward a campaign. It's a little long (5 minutes) but effective nonetheless (if young people have the attention span for it).